President Donald Trump, who rode promises of affordability back to the White House, is now confronting Iran-driven volatility that’s undermining that message as fuel costs rise nationwide — and putting fresh pressure on Republicans heading into the midterms.

With the Iran conflict rattling oil markets and raising fears of supply disruptions, gas prices are climbing again, squeezing Americans already worn down by inflation.

This week, oil prices surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 as fallout from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continued to roil global markets and investors priced in the risk of tighter supply. 

With oil higher, gasoline and diesel prices are rising fast.

The national average gas price climbed to $3.53 per gallon, up 59 cents over the past week, according to GasBuddy. Diesel prices also jumped, with the national average up 97 cents to $4.72 per gallon.

With control of Congress at stake, uneven gas price spikes are becoming a new midterm flashpoint, especially in hard-hit battleground states. 

The steepest week-over-week increases were in Indiana (up 58 cents), Florida (up 57 cents), Michigan (up 55 cents), Ohio (up 54 cents), and California (up 51 cents).

The lowest average prices were in Kansas ($2.90), Oklahoma ($2.95) and Arkansas ($2.98), while the highest were in California ($5.14), Washington ($4.58), and Hawaii ($4.33) — a regional divide that could sharpen midterm attacks over energy costs and inflation.

That kind of pocketbook pressure is exactly what Democrats have been eager to exploit. Last fall, Democrats leaned heavily on affordability themes in state and local elections, and it paid off.

In places like Virginia, New York and New Jersey, where voters have been squeezed by high housing costs and utility bills, Democratic candidates seized on Trump’s early economic moves, including his trade policy, to argue that his policies were worsening the affordability crisis rather than easing it.

They promised to rein in energy costs, expand affordable housing and protect middle-class wages, a message that resonated with voters.

With the ongoing conflict driving gasoline prices higher, the White House is weighing steps to protect shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and keep prices from climbing further. That waterway is critical to global energy supply.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between Iran and Oman, carries roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day and about one-fifth of the global supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG). 

When conflict flares in the region, even the threat of disruption can rattle markets because so much of the world’s energy moves through that single corridor.

Asked about the risk of disruptions, Trump said Monday evening he would keep the route open and threatened retaliation if Iran tried to interfere.

‘I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply. And if Iran does anything to do that, they’ll get hit at a much, much harder level,’ Trump said during a press conference in Florida.

‘In the long run, oil supplies will be dramatically more secure without the threat of Iranian ships, drones, missiles,’ he added.

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